As an e-commerce founder in Egypt, you have to make hard choices daily. One of the most critical decisions is budget allocation: Which campaigns do we scale, and which do we shut down?
In a Cash-on-Delivery (COD) market where shipping fees and return rates (RTO) drastically alter your unit economics, relying on standard ad manager metrics will lead to wrong choices.
Here is the exact framework to decide what to scale and what to kill.
The Standard Mistake: Relying on ROAS
Most brand owners look at Meta Ads Manager, see a campaign with a 3.5x ROAS, and tell their media buyer: "Double the budget on this one." In another campaign, they see a 1.8x ROAS and say: "Kill it."
This is a dangerous trap.
Platform ROAS does not include return rates. What if the 3.5x ROAS campaign is targeting a customer segment in Upper Egypt with a 45% return rate? And what if the 1.8x ROAS campaign is selling a high-margin product in Cairo with a 5% return rate?
The 1.8x campaign is actually generating more cash than the 3.5x campaign.
The Scale-or-Kill Matrix
To make profitable decisions, you must reconcile your advertising spend with actual courier deliveries (e.g. Bosta shipping data).
Use this simple matrix:
-
High Meta ROAS / Low Deliveries (RTO > 30%)
- Status: KILL or ADJUST.
- Reason: This campaign attracts impulse buyers who reject packages. You are bleeding money on shipping and returns.
-
Low Meta ROAS / High Deliveries (RTO < 10%)
- Status: SCALE.
- Reason: The conversions are solid. Customers are actually paying, which offsets the lower platform ROAS.
-
High Meta ROAS / High Deliveries (RTO < 15%)
- Status: SCALE AGGRESSIVELY.
- Reason: This is your goldmine. Scale the budget by 20% to 30% every two days.
Automating the Decision Layer
You should not have to manually run this matrix on Excel sheets. Analify AI automatically computes this workflow for you. It flags your campaigns in real-time, showing you exactly which ones are making money after shipping and returns (Scale Candidates) and which are burning cash (Kill Candidates).
Take the emotion out of scaling. Connect your store for free and start making data-backed decisions today.